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BRICS-T Borsaları İle Altın ve Brent Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Testi İle İncelenmesi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 4, 1453 - 1467, 29.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.894863

Öz

Bu çalışmada BRICS-T ülke borsaları ile ons altın ve Brent petrol fiyatları arasındaki ilişkinin ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda zamanla değişen nedensellik testi vasıtasıyla söz konusu değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin dönemsel farklılıkları tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. 5 Kasım 1995 – 29 Aralık 2019 döneminin incelendiği çalışmada haftalık veriler kullanılmış olup, elde edilen bulgulara göre BRICS-T borsaları ile hem ons altın hem de Brent petrol fiyatı arasında çift yönlü zamana bağlı nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu nedensellik ilişkisinin yerel ve küresel kriz dönemlerinde kuvvetlendiği görülmüştür. Söz konusu bulgular BRICS-T borsaları, altın ve Brent petrol yatırımcıları için kıymetli bilgiler sunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • ABD Enerji Bilgi İdaresi ABD Federal İstatistik Sistemi. (2020). Oil prices data, https://www.eia.gov. (Erişim tarihi: 24.01.2021).
  • Ahmed, R. R., Vveinhardt, J., & Streimikiene, D. (2018). Multivariate Granger causality among oil prices, gold prices, and KSE100: Evidence from Johansen cointegration and garch models. Acta Montanistica Slovaca, 23(2), 216-231.
  • Al Kharusi, S., & Basci, E. S. (2019). Cointegration and causality between the GCC stock indices and gold indices. Business and Economic Horizons, 15(1), 60-69. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.287249.
  • Al-Ameer, M., Hammad, W., Ismail, A., & Hamdan, A. (2018). The relationship of gold price with the stock market: The case of Frankfurt stock exchange. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(5), 357-371.
  • Ananzeh, I. E. N., & Al-Zararee, A. N. (2016). Examining the dynamics relationship between gold, oil prices and stock markets: Experience from Jordan economy. European Journal of Business and Management, 8(27), 135-142.
  • Arouri, M. E. H., Jouini, J., & Nguyen, D. (2012). On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness. Energy Economics, 34, 611–617. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.009.
  • Ayaydın, H. ve Barut, A. (2016). Petrol fiyatları, altın fiyatları ve hisse senedi getirisi ilişkisi. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Aralık 2016, 13-26.
  • Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., & Arslanturk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
  • Banumathy, K., & Azhagaiah, R. (2015). Long-run and short-run causality between stock price and gold price: Evidence of vecm analysis from India. Management Studies and Economic Systems (MSES), 1 (4), 247-256.
  • Bhowmik, D. (2013). Stock market volatility: An evaluation. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 3(10), 1-18.
  • Bhunia, A., & Mukhuti, S. (2013). The impact of domestic gold price on stock price indices-an empirical study of Indian stock exchanges. Universal Journal of Marketing and Business Research, 2(2), 60-63.
  • Bilal, A. R., Talib, N. B. A., Haq, I. U., Khan, M. N. A. A., & Naveed, M. (2013). How gold prices correspond to stock index: A comparative analysis of Karachi stock exchange and Bombay stock exchange. World Applied Sciences Journal, 21, 485-491. doi: 10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.21.4.2870.
  • Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., Jammazi, R., & Assaf, A. (2017). Uncovering frequency domain causality between gold and the stock markets of China and India: Evidence from implied volatility indices. Finance Research Letters, 23, 23-30. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.06.010.
  • Breitung, J., & Candelon, B. (2006), Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132, 363-378.
  • Carrion-i-Sylvestre J. L., Kim, D., & Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. Econometric Theory. 25, 1754-1792.
  • Chopra, S. I. (2018). Relationship between gold and other markets: A cointegration approach with structural breaks. 12 January, IIMA-IGPC Conference on Gold and Gold Markets, India.
  • Choudhry, T., Hassan, S. S., & Shabi, S. (2015). Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 247–256. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.03.011.
  • Coronado, S., Jimenez-Rodriguez, R., & Rojas, O. (2018). An empirical analysis of the relationships between crude oil, gold and stock markets. The Energy Journal, 39(11), 193-207.
  • Engle, R. F., & Patton, A. J. (2001). What good is a volatility model?. Quantitative Finance, 1(2), 237-245.
  • Enilov, M., Fazio, G., & Ghoshray, A. (2021). Global connectivity between commodity prices and national stock markets: A time-varying midas analysis. International Journal of Finance & Economics, February 2021, 1-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2552.
  • Eyüboğlu, K. ve Eyüboğlu, S. (2016). Doğal gaz ve petrol fiyatları ile BİST sanayi sektörü endeksleri arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi. Journal of Yasar University, 42, 150-162.
  • Gaire, H. N. (2017). Stock index, interest rate and gold price of Nepal: Cointegration and causality analysis. NRB Economic Review, 29(2), 15-30.
  • Ghosh, S., & Kanjilal, K. (2016). Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests. Energy Economics, 53, 111–117. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.002.
  • Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38, 1489 1500. doi: 10.1080/00036840500405763.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Investing.com Portföy Yönetimi Portalı. (2020). Major indices. https://www.investing.com/ (Erişim tarihi: 24.01.2021).
  • Kiracı, K. (2020). BİST ulaştırma endeksi ile dolar endeksi ve petrol fiyatları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik olarak analizi. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(22), 180-189. doi: 10.14784/marufacd.688344.
  • Kocabıyık, T. ve Fattah, A. S. (2020). Makroekonomik değişkenlerin borsa endeksleri üzerine etkisi: Türkiye ve ABD karşılaştırması. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(22), 116-151. doi: 10.14784/marufacd.691108.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root Test with one structural break. Appalachian State University Working Papers, 4(17), 1-15.
  • Ma, Z., Xu, R., & Dong, X. (2016). World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: The evidence from China. Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika), 61(12), 564-576. doi: 10.17221/6/2015-AGRICECON.
  • Meng, M. K. Im, J. Lee ve Tieslau, M. (2014). More powerful lm unit root tests with non-normal errors. R. Sickles and W. Horrace (Ed.), The festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric method and applications içinde (ss.343–357). Berlin/Germany: Springer Publishing Co.
  • Muhammad M. B., Shahbaz, M., Imran, M., Jabbar, M., & Ain, U. A. (2013). Relationship between gold and oil prices and stock market returns. Acta Universitatis Danubius, 9(5), 28-39.
  • Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. C. (1992). Lm tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 257-287.
  • Syzdykova, A. (2018). Makroekonomik değişkenler ve hisse senedi piyasası ilişkisi: KASE örneği. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 331-354.
  • Şentürk, M. ve Akbaş, Y.E. (2012). Finansal aktif fiyatları ve borsa getirisi ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği üzerine bir uygulama. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 3(6), 41-53.
  • Temelli, F. ve Şahin, D. (2019). Hisse senedi fiyatları, altın fiyatları ve ham petrol fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin analizi. EKEV Akademi Dergisi, 23(67), 161-178. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.17753/Ekev1017.
  • Tiwari, A. K., Adewuyi, A. O., & Roubaud, D. (2019). Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods. The World Economy, 42, 2172-2214. doi: 10.1111/twec.12775.
  • Tolu, F. (2020). Londra FTSE100 borsa endeksi ile altın fiyatları arasındaki ilişki. BEYDER, 15(1), 59-70.
  • Toraman, C., Başarır, C. ve Bayramoğlu, M. (2011). Determination of factors affecting the price of gold: A study of mgarch model. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(4), 37-50.
  • Tripathy, N. (2016). A study on dynamic relationship between gold price and stock market price in India. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 88, 1-16.
  • Wei, Y., & Guo, X. (2016). An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy. Energy Economics, 56, 88-100. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.023 0140-9883.
  • Weng, Y. W. (2011). Causal relationship between gold price, oil price, exchange rate and international stock markets. Prosiding Perkem, 6(2), 282-291.
  • Xiao, D., & Wang, J. (2020). Dynamic complexity and causality of crude oil and major stock markets. Energy, 193, 1-20. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116791.
  • Yamaka, W., & Maneejuk, P. (2020). Analyzing the causality and dependence between gold shocks and Asian emerging stock markets: A smooth transition copula approach. Mathematics, 8(120), 1-27. doi:10.3390/math8010120.
  • Yıldırım, E. ve İşcanoğlu Çekiç, A. (2019). Altın, ham petrol, Gvz ve Ovx’in Türk finansal piyasalarına simetrik ve asimetrik etkileri. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 15(3), 714-731. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2019355047.
  • Yıldız Contuk, F. (2020). Altın ve hisse senedi fiyatları arasında nedensel ilişki: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24, 619-630.
  • Zhu, H. M., Li, S. F., & Yu, K. (2011). Crude oil shocks and stock markets: A panel threshold cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 33, 987-994. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.002.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3):251-270.

The Investigation of the Relationship between BRICS-T Stock Markets, Gold and Brent Oil Prices with Time Varying Causality Test

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 4, 1453 - 1467, 29.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.894863

Öz

In this paper, it is aimed to reveal the relationship between BRICS-T stock markets, gold ounce and Brent oil prices. For this purpose, periodic differences of the relationships between the mentioned variables are tried to be revealed through the time varying causality test. Weekly data were used in the study, which examined the period of 5th Nov., 1995 - 29th Dec., 2019, and according to the findings, the presence of a two-way time-varying causal relationship between both gold ounce and Brent oil prices with BRICS-T stock markets was determined. This causality relationship has been observed to strengthen in local and global crisis periods. These findings provides valuable information for BRICS-T stock market, gold and Brent oil investors.

Kaynakça

  • ABD Enerji Bilgi İdaresi ABD Federal İstatistik Sistemi. (2020). Oil prices data, https://www.eia.gov. (Erişim tarihi: 24.01.2021).
  • Ahmed, R. R., Vveinhardt, J., & Streimikiene, D. (2018). Multivariate Granger causality among oil prices, gold prices, and KSE100: Evidence from Johansen cointegration and garch models. Acta Montanistica Slovaca, 23(2), 216-231.
  • Al Kharusi, S., & Basci, E. S. (2019). Cointegration and causality between the GCC stock indices and gold indices. Business and Economic Horizons, 15(1), 60-69. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.287249.
  • Al-Ameer, M., Hammad, W., Ismail, A., & Hamdan, A. (2018). The relationship of gold price with the stock market: The case of Frankfurt stock exchange. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(5), 357-371.
  • Ananzeh, I. E. N., & Al-Zararee, A. N. (2016). Examining the dynamics relationship between gold, oil prices and stock markets: Experience from Jordan economy. European Journal of Business and Management, 8(27), 135-142.
  • Arouri, M. E. H., Jouini, J., & Nguyen, D. (2012). On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness. Energy Economics, 34, 611–617. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.009.
  • Ayaydın, H. ve Barut, A. (2016). Petrol fiyatları, altın fiyatları ve hisse senedi getirisi ilişkisi. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Aralık 2016, 13-26.
  • Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., & Arslanturk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
  • Banumathy, K., & Azhagaiah, R. (2015). Long-run and short-run causality between stock price and gold price: Evidence of vecm analysis from India. Management Studies and Economic Systems (MSES), 1 (4), 247-256.
  • Bhowmik, D. (2013). Stock market volatility: An evaluation. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 3(10), 1-18.
  • Bhunia, A., & Mukhuti, S. (2013). The impact of domestic gold price on stock price indices-an empirical study of Indian stock exchanges. Universal Journal of Marketing and Business Research, 2(2), 60-63.
  • Bilal, A. R., Talib, N. B. A., Haq, I. U., Khan, M. N. A. A., & Naveed, M. (2013). How gold prices correspond to stock index: A comparative analysis of Karachi stock exchange and Bombay stock exchange. World Applied Sciences Journal, 21, 485-491. doi: 10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.21.4.2870.
  • Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., Jammazi, R., & Assaf, A. (2017). Uncovering frequency domain causality between gold and the stock markets of China and India: Evidence from implied volatility indices. Finance Research Letters, 23, 23-30. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.06.010.
  • Breitung, J., & Candelon, B. (2006), Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132, 363-378.
  • Carrion-i-Sylvestre J. L., Kim, D., & Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. Econometric Theory. 25, 1754-1792.
  • Chopra, S. I. (2018). Relationship between gold and other markets: A cointegration approach with structural breaks. 12 January, IIMA-IGPC Conference on Gold and Gold Markets, India.
  • Choudhry, T., Hassan, S. S., & Shabi, S. (2015). Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 247–256. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.03.011.
  • Coronado, S., Jimenez-Rodriguez, R., & Rojas, O. (2018). An empirical analysis of the relationships between crude oil, gold and stock markets. The Energy Journal, 39(11), 193-207.
  • Engle, R. F., & Patton, A. J. (2001). What good is a volatility model?. Quantitative Finance, 1(2), 237-245.
  • Enilov, M., Fazio, G., & Ghoshray, A. (2021). Global connectivity between commodity prices and national stock markets: A time-varying midas analysis. International Journal of Finance & Economics, February 2021, 1-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2552.
  • Eyüboğlu, K. ve Eyüboğlu, S. (2016). Doğal gaz ve petrol fiyatları ile BİST sanayi sektörü endeksleri arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi. Journal of Yasar University, 42, 150-162.
  • Gaire, H. N. (2017). Stock index, interest rate and gold price of Nepal: Cointegration and causality analysis. NRB Economic Review, 29(2), 15-30.
  • Ghosh, S., & Kanjilal, K. (2016). Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests. Energy Economics, 53, 111–117. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.002.
  • Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38, 1489 1500. doi: 10.1080/00036840500405763.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Investing.com Portföy Yönetimi Portalı. (2020). Major indices. https://www.investing.com/ (Erişim tarihi: 24.01.2021).
  • Kiracı, K. (2020). BİST ulaştırma endeksi ile dolar endeksi ve petrol fiyatları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik olarak analizi. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(22), 180-189. doi: 10.14784/marufacd.688344.
  • Kocabıyık, T. ve Fattah, A. S. (2020). Makroekonomik değişkenlerin borsa endeksleri üzerine etkisi: Türkiye ve ABD karşılaştırması. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(22), 116-151. doi: 10.14784/marufacd.691108.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root Test with one structural break. Appalachian State University Working Papers, 4(17), 1-15.
  • Ma, Z., Xu, R., & Dong, X. (2016). World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: The evidence from China. Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika), 61(12), 564-576. doi: 10.17221/6/2015-AGRICECON.
  • Meng, M. K. Im, J. Lee ve Tieslau, M. (2014). More powerful lm unit root tests with non-normal errors. R. Sickles and W. Horrace (Ed.), The festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric method and applications içinde (ss.343–357). Berlin/Germany: Springer Publishing Co.
  • Muhammad M. B., Shahbaz, M., Imran, M., Jabbar, M., & Ain, U. A. (2013). Relationship between gold and oil prices and stock market returns. Acta Universitatis Danubius, 9(5), 28-39.
  • Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. C. (1992). Lm tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 257-287.
  • Syzdykova, A. (2018). Makroekonomik değişkenler ve hisse senedi piyasası ilişkisi: KASE örneği. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 331-354.
  • Şentürk, M. ve Akbaş, Y.E. (2012). Finansal aktif fiyatları ve borsa getirisi ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği üzerine bir uygulama. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 3(6), 41-53.
  • Temelli, F. ve Şahin, D. (2019). Hisse senedi fiyatları, altın fiyatları ve ham petrol fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin analizi. EKEV Akademi Dergisi, 23(67), 161-178. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.17753/Ekev1017.
  • Tiwari, A. K., Adewuyi, A. O., & Roubaud, D. (2019). Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods. The World Economy, 42, 2172-2214. doi: 10.1111/twec.12775.
  • Tolu, F. (2020). Londra FTSE100 borsa endeksi ile altın fiyatları arasındaki ilişki. BEYDER, 15(1), 59-70.
  • Toraman, C., Başarır, C. ve Bayramoğlu, M. (2011). Determination of factors affecting the price of gold: A study of mgarch model. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(4), 37-50.
  • Tripathy, N. (2016). A study on dynamic relationship between gold price and stock market price in India. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 88, 1-16.
  • Wei, Y., & Guo, X. (2016). An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy. Energy Economics, 56, 88-100. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.023 0140-9883.
  • Weng, Y. W. (2011). Causal relationship between gold price, oil price, exchange rate and international stock markets. Prosiding Perkem, 6(2), 282-291.
  • Xiao, D., & Wang, J. (2020). Dynamic complexity and causality of crude oil and major stock markets. Energy, 193, 1-20. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116791.
  • Yamaka, W., & Maneejuk, P. (2020). Analyzing the causality and dependence between gold shocks and Asian emerging stock markets: A smooth transition copula approach. Mathematics, 8(120), 1-27. doi:10.3390/math8010120.
  • Yıldırım, E. ve İşcanoğlu Çekiç, A. (2019). Altın, ham petrol, Gvz ve Ovx’in Türk finansal piyasalarına simetrik ve asimetrik etkileri. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 15(3), 714-731. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2019355047.
  • Yıldız Contuk, F. (2020). Altın ve hisse senedi fiyatları arasında nedensel ilişki: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24, 619-630.
  • Zhu, H. M., Li, S. F., & Yu, K. (2011). Crude oil shocks and stock markets: A panel threshold cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 33, 987-994. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.002.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3):251-270.
Toplam 49 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Hukuk
Yazarlar

Feyyaz Zeren 0000-0003-0163-5916

Selim Güngör 0000-0002-2997-1113

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 12 Mart 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Zeren, F., & Güngör, S. (2021). BRICS-T Borsaları İle Altın ve Brent Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Testi İle İncelenmesi. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(4), 1453-1467. https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.894863