Van ilinin kuraklığının SPI ve SPEI yöntemlerine göre değerlendirilmesi

Mahsum Aydın

doi:10.24012/dumf.1381660

Araştırma Makalesi

Van ilinin kuraklığının SPI ve SPEI yöntemlerine göre değerlendirilmesi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1, 237 - 250

Mahsum Aydın

https://doi.org/10.24012/dumf.1381660

Öz

Özellikle son yıllarda iklim değişikliğinin ve insan faaliyetlerinin bir sonucu olarak kuraklık olayının etkisi her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bunun sonucu olarak su kaynakları, tarım ve canlılar olumsuz olarak etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Van ilinin kuraklık olayından nasıl etkilendiğini tespit edebilmek amacıyla literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) ve Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) yöntemleri kullanılarak 1,3,6,9 ve 12 aylık zaman periyotlarında kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelendiğinde SPI yöntemine göre aşırı kurak dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü bölge Erciş ilçesi olarak belirlenirken, aşırı nemli dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü bölge ise Özalp ilçesi olarak belirlenmiştir. SPEI yöntemine göre ise aşırı kurak dönemin en çok görüldüğü bölge Özalp ilçesi olurken, aşırı nemli dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü ilçeler ise özellikle uzun zaman periyotlarında Erciş ve Başkale ilçeleri olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak her iki yöntem genel olarak birbirine yakın sonuçlar verse de özellikle ekstrem kuraklık ve nemlilik olaylarının hesabında SPI yöntemine göre daha büyük değerlerin hesaplandığı görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelendiğinde kuraklık değerlendirmesi için SPI yöntemine göre hesaplanan ekstrem olayların fazla olması nedeni ile dikkatli kullanılması, SPI yöntemi yerine sıcaklığın da etkisinin göz önüne alındığı SPEI yönteminin tercih edilebileceği değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kuraklık, SPI (Standart Yağış İndeksi), SPEI (Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi), Van İli

Kaynakça

[1] D. A. Wilhite, “Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions,” in Drought: A Global Assessment, D.A. Wilhite, Ed. London, UK, Routledge, 2012, pp. 3-18.
[2] A. G. Koutroulis, A. E. K. Vrochidou, and I. K. Tsanis, “Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought for the Island of Crete,” J. Hydrometeorol., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 206–226, April 2011. DOI: 10.1175/2010JHM1252.1.
[3] G. Rossi, “Drought mitigation measures: A comprehensive framework,” in Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe, J. Voght, and F. Somma, Eds. Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000, pp. 233–246.
[4] S. Bae, S. H. Lee, S. H. Yoo, and T. Kim, “Analysis of drought intensity and trends using the modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010,” Water, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 1-17, March 2018. DOI: 10.3390/w10030327.
[5] S. S. Ojha, V. Singh, and T. Roshni, “Comparison of meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI,” Civ. Eng. J, vol. 7, no. 12, pp. 2130-2149, December 2021. DOI: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091783.
[6] T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G. K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, “IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers,” Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
[7] S. M. Vicente-Serrano, “Evaluating the impact of drought using remote sensing in a Mediterranean, semi-arid region,” Natural Hazards, vol. 40, pp. 173-208, January 2007. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-0009-7.
[8] A. K. Mishra, V. P. Singh, “A review of drought concepts,” Journal of hydrology, vol. 391, no: 1-2, pp. 202-216, September 2010. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012.
[9] M. Svoboda, D. LeComte, M. Hayes, R. Heim, K. Gleason, J. Angel, and S. Stephens, “The drought monitor,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 83, no. 8, pp. 1181-1190, August 2002. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1181.
[10] V. Gümüş, A. Başak and N. Oruç, “Standartlaştırılmış yağış indeksi (SYİ) yöntemi ile Şanlıurfa istasyonunun kuraklık analizi,” Harran Üniversitesi Mühendislik Dergisi, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 36-44, June 2016.
[11] R. Niaz, M. M. Almazah, I. Hussain, J. D. P. Filho, N. Al-Ansari, S. Sh Sammen, “Assessing the probability of drought severity in a homogeneous region,” Complexity, vol. 2022, pp. 1-8, January 2022. DOI: 10.1155/2022/3139870.
[12] S. Gurrapu, A. Chipanshi, D. Sauchyn, and A. Howard, “Comparison of the SPI and SPEI on predicting drought conditions and streamflow in the Canadian prairies,” in Proceedings of the 28th Conference on Hydrology, Atlanta, GA, USA: American Meteorological Society. February 2014, pp. 1-7.
[13] S. Tirivarombo, D. Osupile, and P. Eliasson, “Drought monitoring and analysis: Standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardised precipitation index (SPI),” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, vol. 106, pp. 1-10, August 2018. DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2018.07.001.
[14] E. A. Hernandez, and V. Uddameri, “Standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI)-based drought assessment in semi-arid south Texas,” Environmental Earth Sciences, vol. 71, pp. 2491-2501, 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s12665-013-2897-7.
[15] Ü. G. Bacanlı, T. Baran, and F. Dikbaş, “Applicability of apportionment entropy as a drought index,” Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 232-237, 2017. DOI: 10.5505/pajes.2016.80664.
[16] A. Abbasi, K. Khalili, J. Behmanesh, and A. Shirzad, “Drought monitoring and prediction using SPEI index and gene expression programming model in the west of Urmia Lake,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 138, pp. 553-567, April 2019. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-019-02825-9.
[17] Ü. G. Bacanlı, and G. N. Akşan, “Drought analysis in Mediterranean region,” Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 25, no. 6, pp. 665-671, 2019. DOI: 10.5505/pajes.2019.64507.
[18] A. Danandeh Mehr, and B. Vaheddoost, “Identification of the trends associated with the SPI and SPEI indices across Ankara, Turkey,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 139, no. 3-4, pp. 1531-1542, 2020. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-019-03071-9.
[19] F. Bakanoğulları, “SPEI ve SPI indeksleri kullanılarak İstanbul-Damlıca Deresi Havzasında kuraklık şiddetlerinin analizi,” Toprak Su Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1-10, March 2020. DOI: 10.21657/topraksu.566693.
[20] C. Liu, C. Yang, Q. Yang, and J. Wang, “Spatiotemporal drought analysis by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Sichuan Province, China,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 1-14, January 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80527-3.
[21] G. Aktürk, U. Zeybekoğlu, and O. Yıldız, “SPI ve SPEI Yöntemleri ile Kuraklık Araştırması: Kırıkkale Örneği,” International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 762-776, July 2022. DOI: 10.29137/umagd.1100886.
[22] H. Yetmen, “Van Gölü Havzası’nın kuraklık analizi,” 21. Yüzyılda Eğitim ve Toplum Eğitim Bilimleri ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 2, no. 5, pp. 184-198, 2013.
[23] M. A. Çelik, İ. Kopar, H. Bayram, “Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nin mevsimlik kuraklık analizi,” Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 1741-1761, September 2018.
[24] A. Öz, “Farklı kuraklık indisleri kullanılarak Van gölü havzası kuraklık analizi,” M.S. thesis, Dept. Civil Eng., Van Yuzuncu Yil Univ., Van, Turrkey, 2020.
[25] F. Erdem, R. Altun, Z. Y. Avdan, I. Atila and U. Avdan, “Drought analysis of Van Lake Basin with remote sensing and GIS technologies,” The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 1093-1102, December 2021.
[26] B. Özer, Ö. Yalçıner Ercoşkun, “Drought Analysis and Resilient Strategies: The Case of Lake Van Basin,” Resilience, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 207-230, December 2021.
[27] Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü, “Resmi İstatistikler,” [Online] Available: https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?m=VAN#sfB, Accessed on July 27, 2023.
[28] T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales,” in Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, vol. 17, no. 22, pp. 179-183, 1993.
[29] J. T. Shiau, “Effects of gamma-distribution variations on SPI-based stationary and nonstationary drought analyses,” Water Resources Management, vol. 34, pp. 2081-2095, May 2020. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02548-x.
[30] T. Raziei. “Improving the normalization procedure of the simplified standardized precipitation index (SSPI) using Box–Cox transformation,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol:37 no:3, pp. 925-951, 2003.
[31] P. Angelidis, F. Maris, N. Kotsovinos, and V. Hrissanthou, “Computation of drought index SPI with alternative distribution functions,” Water Resources Management, vol. 26, pp. 2453-2473, April 2012. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0026-0.
[32] N. B. Guttman, “Accepting the standardized precipitation index: A calculation algorithm,” JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 311-322, December 1999. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x.
[33] H. C. S. Thom, “A note on the gamma distribution,” Mon Weather Rev, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 117–122, April 1958. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1958)086<0117:ANOTGD>2.0.CO;2.
[34] C. A. Karavitis, S. Alexandris, D. E. Tsesmelis, and G. Athanasopoulos, “Application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Greece,” Water, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 787-805, August 2011. DOI: 10.3390/w3030787.
[35] M. Abramowitz, and I. A. Stegun, “Handbook of Mathematical Functions with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables,” 10th ed. Washington, USA, National Bureau of Standards, 1964.
[36] M. A. A. Zarch, B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma, “Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI),” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 526, pp. 183-195, July 2015. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.071.
[37] S. M. Vicente-Serrano, S. Beguería, J. I. López-Moreno, “A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,” Journal of Climate, vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 1696-1718, April 2010. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.
[38] S. A. Banimahd, and D. Khalili, “Factors influencing Markov chains predictability characteristics, utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI drought indices in different climatic zones,” Water Resources Management, vol. 27, pp. 3911-3928, June 2013. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0387-z.
[39] C. W. Thornthwaite, “An approach toward a rational classification of climate,” Geographical Review, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 55-94, Jan. 1948. DOI: 10.2307/210739.
[40] R. Wang, W. Peng, X. Liu, W. Wu, X. Chen, and S. Zhang, “Responses of water level in China’s largest freshwater lake to the meteorological drought index (SPEI) in the past five decades,” Water, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 1-20, Feb. 2018. DOI: 10.3390/w10020137.
[41] R. Jiang, J. Xie, H. He, J. Luo, and J. Zhu, “Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012,” Natural Hazards, vol. 75, pp. 2885-2903, Feb. 2015. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1468-x.
[42] M. I. Ahmad, C. D. Sinclair, and A. Werritty, “Log-logistic flood frequency analysis,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 98, no. 3-4, pp. 205-224, August 1988. DOI: 10.1029/WR024i008p01323.
[43] V. P. Singh, H. Guo, F. X. Yu, “Parameter estimation for 3-parameter log-logistic distribution (LLD3) by Pome,” Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, vol. 7, pp. 163-177, September 1993. DOI: 10.1007/BF01585596.

Assessment of drought in Van province according to SPI and SPEI methods

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1, 237 - 250

Mahsum Aydın

https://doi.org/10.24012/dumf.1381660

Öz

The effects of drought have been increasing day by day, especially in recent years, as a result of climate change and human activities. Thus, water resources, agriculture and living organisms are negatively affected. In this study, in order to determine how Van province is affected by drought, drought analysis was carried out in 1,3,6,9 and 12-month time periods by using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) methods which are widely used in the literature. When the results obtained were analyzed, according to the SPI method, Erciş district was determined as the region with the most extreme drought periods, while Özalp district was determined as the region with the most extreme wet periods. According to the SPEI method, the region with the most extreme drought periods was determined as Özalp district, while the districts with the most extreme wet periods were determined as Erciş and Başkale districts, especially in long time periods. As a result, although both methods generally give similar results, it was observed that larger values were calculated according to the SPI method, especially in the calculation of extreme drought and wet events. Based on the results obtained, it is evaluated that the extreme events calculated according to the SPI method for drought assessment should be used with caution due to the high number of extreme events calculated according to the SPI method, and the SPEI method, which also takes into account the effect of temperature, can be preferred instead of the SPI method.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Drought, SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), Van Province

Kaynakça

[1] D. A. Wilhite, “Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions,” in Drought: A Global Assessment, D.A. Wilhite, Ed. London, UK, Routledge, 2012, pp. 3-18.
[2] A. G. Koutroulis, A. E. K. Vrochidou, and I. K. Tsanis, “Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought for the Island of Crete,” J. Hydrometeorol., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 206–226, April 2011. DOI: 10.1175/2010JHM1252.1.
[3] G. Rossi, “Drought mitigation measures: A comprehensive framework,” in Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe, J. Voght, and F. Somma, Eds. Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000, pp. 233–246.
[4] S. Bae, S. H. Lee, S. H. Yoo, and T. Kim, “Analysis of drought intensity and trends using the modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010,” Water, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 1-17, March 2018. DOI: 10.3390/w10030327.
[5] S. S. Ojha, V. Singh, and T. Roshni, “Comparison of meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI,” Civ. Eng. J, vol. 7, no. 12, pp. 2130-2149, December 2021. DOI: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091783.
[6] T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G. K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, “IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers,” Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
[7] S. M. Vicente-Serrano, “Evaluating the impact of drought using remote sensing in a Mediterranean, semi-arid region,” Natural Hazards, vol. 40, pp. 173-208, January 2007. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-0009-7.
[8] A. K. Mishra, V. P. Singh, “A review of drought concepts,” Journal of hydrology, vol. 391, no: 1-2, pp. 202-216, September 2010. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012.
[9] M. Svoboda, D. LeComte, M. Hayes, R. Heim, K. Gleason, J. Angel, and S. Stephens, “The drought monitor,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 83, no. 8, pp. 1181-1190, August 2002. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1181.
[10] V. Gümüş, A. Başak and N. Oruç, “Standartlaştırılmış yağış indeksi (SYİ) yöntemi ile Şanlıurfa istasyonunun kuraklık analizi,” Harran Üniversitesi Mühendislik Dergisi, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 36-44, June 2016.
[11] R. Niaz, M. M. Almazah, I. Hussain, J. D. P. Filho, N. Al-Ansari, S. Sh Sammen, “Assessing the probability of drought severity in a homogeneous region,” Complexity, vol. 2022, pp. 1-8, January 2022. DOI: 10.1155/2022/3139870.
[12] S. Gurrapu, A. Chipanshi, D. Sauchyn, and A. Howard, “Comparison of the SPI and SPEI on predicting drought conditions and streamflow in the Canadian prairies,” in Proceedings of the 28th Conference on Hydrology, Atlanta, GA, USA: American Meteorological Society. February 2014, pp. 1-7.
[13] S. Tirivarombo, D. Osupile, and P. Eliasson, “Drought monitoring and analysis: Standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardised precipitation index (SPI),” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, vol. 106, pp. 1-10, August 2018. DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2018.07.001.
[14] E. A. Hernandez, and V. Uddameri, “Standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI)-based drought assessment in semi-arid south Texas,” Environmental Earth Sciences, vol. 71, pp. 2491-2501, 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s12665-013-2897-7.
[15] Ü. G. Bacanlı, T. Baran, and F. Dikbaş, “Applicability of apportionment entropy as a drought index,” Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 232-237, 2017. DOI: 10.5505/pajes.2016.80664.
[16] A. Abbasi, K. Khalili, J. Behmanesh, and A. Shirzad, “Drought monitoring and prediction using SPEI index and gene expression programming model in the west of Urmia Lake,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 138, pp. 553-567, April 2019. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-019-02825-9.
[17] Ü. G. Bacanlı, and G. N. Akşan, “Drought analysis in Mediterranean region,” Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 25, no. 6, pp. 665-671, 2019. DOI: 10.5505/pajes.2019.64507.
[18] A. Danandeh Mehr, and B. Vaheddoost, “Identification of the trends associated with the SPI and SPEI indices across Ankara, Turkey,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 139, no. 3-4, pp. 1531-1542, 2020. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-019-03071-9.
[19] F. Bakanoğulları, “SPEI ve SPI indeksleri kullanılarak İstanbul-Damlıca Deresi Havzasında kuraklık şiddetlerinin analizi,” Toprak Su Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1-10, March 2020. DOI: 10.21657/topraksu.566693.
[20] C. Liu, C. Yang, Q. Yang, and J. Wang, “Spatiotemporal drought analysis by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Sichuan Province, China,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 1-14, January 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80527-3.
[21] G. Aktürk, U. Zeybekoğlu, and O. Yıldız, “SPI ve SPEI Yöntemleri ile Kuraklık Araştırması: Kırıkkale Örneği,” International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 762-776, July 2022. DOI: 10.29137/umagd.1100886.
[22] H. Yetmen, “Van Gölü Havzası’nın kuraklık analizi,” 21. Yüzyılda Eğitim ve Toplum Eğitim Bilimleri ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 2, no. 5, pp. 184-198, 2013.
[23] M. A. Çelik, İ. Kopar, H. Bayram, “Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nin mevsimlik kuraklık analizi,” Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 1741-1761, September 2018.
[24] A. Öz, “Farklı kuraklık indisleri kullanılarak Van gölü havzası kuraklık analizi,” M.S. thesis, Dept. Civil Eng., Van Yuzuncu Yil Univ., Van, Turrkey, 2020.
[25] F. Erdem, R. Altun, Z. Y. Avdan, I. Atila and U. Avdan, “Drought analysis of Van Lake Basin with remote sensing and GIS technologies,” The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 1093-1102, December 2021.
[26] B. Özer, Ö. Yalçıner Ercoşkun, “Drought Analysis and Resilient Strategies: The Case of Lake Van Basin,” Resilience, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 207-230, December 2021.
[27] Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü, “Resmi İstatistikler,” [Online] Available: https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?m=VAN#sfB, Accessed on July 27, 2023.
[28] T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales,” in Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, vol. 17, no. 22, pp. 179-183, 1993.
[29] J. T. Shiau, “Effects of gamma-distribution variations on SPI-based stationary and nonstationary drought analyses,” Water Resources Management, vol. 34, pp. 2081-2095, May 2020. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02548-x.
[30] T. Raziei. “Improving the normalization procedure of the simplified standardized precipitation index (SSPI) using Box–Cox transformation,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol:37 no:3, pp. 925-951, 2003.
[31] P. Angelidis, F. Maris, N. Kotsovinos, and V. Hrissanthou, “Computation of drought index SPI with alternative distribution functions,” Water Resources Management, vol. 26, pp. 2453-2473, April 2012. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0026-0.
[32] N. B. Guttman, “Accepting the standardized precipitation index: A calculation algorithm,” JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 311-322, December 1999. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x.
[33] H. C. S. Thom, “A note on the gamma distribution,” Mon Weather Rev, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 117–122, April 1958. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1958)086<0117:ANOTGD>2.0.CO;2.
[34] C. A. Karavitis, S. Alexandris, D. E. Tsesmelis, and G. Athanasopoulos, “Application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Greece,” Water, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 787-805, August 2011. DOI: 10.3390/w3030787.
[35] M. Abramowitz, and I. A. Stegun, “Handbook of Mathematical Functions with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables,” 10th ed. Washington, USA, National Bureau of Standards, 1964.
[36] M. A. A. Zarch, B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma, “Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI),” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 526, pp. 183-195, July 2015. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.071.
[37] S. M. Vicente-Serrano, S. Beguería, J. I. López-Moreno, “A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,” Journal of Climate, vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 1696-1718, April 2010. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.
[38] S. A. Banimahd, and D. Khalili, “Factors influencing Markov chains predictability characteristics, utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI drought indices in different climatic zones,” Water Resources Management, vol. 27, pp. 3911-3928, June 2013. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0387-z.
[39] C. W. Thornthwaite, “An approach toward a rational classification of climate,” Geographical Review, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 55-94, Jan. 1948. DOI: 10.2307/210739.
[40] R. Wang, W. Peng, X. Liu, W. Wu, X. Chen, and S. Zhang, “Responses of water level in China’s largest freshwater lake to the meteorological drought index (SPEI) in the past five decades,” Water, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 1-20, Feb. 2018. DOI: 10.3390/w10020137.
[41] R. Jiang, J. Xie, H. He, J. Luo, and J. Zhu, “Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012,” Natural Hazards, vol. 75, pp. 2885-2903, Feb. 2015. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1468-x.
[42] M. I. Ahmad, C. D. Sinclair, and A. Werritty, “Log-logistic flood frequency analysis,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 98, no. 3-4, pp. 205-224, August 1988. DOI: 10.1029/WR024i008p01323.
[43] V. P. Singh, H. Guo, F. X. Yu, “Parameter estimation for 3-parameter log-logistic distribution (LLD3) by Pome,” Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, vol. 7, pp. 163-177, September 1993. DOI: 10.1007/BF01585596.

Toplam 43 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	Türkçe
Konular	İnşaat Mühendisliği (Diğer)
Bölüm	Makaleler
Yazarlar	Mahsum Aydın 0000-0001-9739-4066
Erken Görünüm Tarihi	29 Mart 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Gönderilme Tarihi	26 Ekim 2023
Kabul Tarihi	24 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2024 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

IEEE	M. Aydın, “Van ilinin kuraklığının SPI ve SPEI yöntemlerine göre değerlendirilmesi”, DÜMF MD, c. 15, sy. 1, ss. 237–250, 2024, doi: 10.24012/dumf.1381660.

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