A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey

Selim Şeker; Kürşat Ayan; Abdal Kasule

doi:10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902

EN

A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey

Abstract

For Turkey to achieve the targets of Vision 2023 of being in the top ten economies of the world, the eleventh National Development Plan (NDP11) focuses on ensuring uninterrupted, high-quality, sustainable, reliable and affordable energy supply. In this regard medium- and long-term energy supply-demand planning is regarded as a key input to the planning process. Medium and long-term planning is possible only when reliable forecasts are available. Using Turkey’s electrical energy consumption data from 1970 to 2015, this study presents novel Gaussian, Fourier and Exponential curve fitting and extrapolation approaches to forecast Turkey’s electrical energy consumption up to the year 2025. Major interest is put on how the model forecasts electrical energy consumption for year 2023 because this year marks a century of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey and all strategic plans are focused on how to achieve the targets as outline in Vision 2023. We evaluate the performance of the models on how best they forecast electrical energy consumption for the year 2023. Our forecasts for the year 2023 are 352.7TWh, 377.4 TWh, and 460.1TWh for the Gaussian, Fourier and Exponential models respectively which compare well with NDP11’s estimated 375.8 TWh electrical energy consumption in 2023.

Keywords

Thanks

The authors thank Mr. Mehmet Alkan for his valuable help in simulation.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Software Engineering (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Selim Şeker
0000-0002-4619-4256
Türkiye

Kürşat Ayan
0000-0003-0299-4574
Türkiye

Abdal Kasule ^*
0000-0002-4619-4256
Uganda

Publication Date

August 31, 2021

Submission Date

June 17, 2021

Acceptance Date

August 22, 2021

Published in Issue

Year 2021 Volume: 4 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA96GP55MA

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Şeker, S., Ayan, K., & Kasule, A. (2021). A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey. Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Information Sciences, 4(2), 266-276. https://doi.org/10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902

AMA

1.Şeker S, Ayan K, Kasule A. A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey. SAUCIS. 2021;4(2):266-276. doi:10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902

Chicago

Şeker, Selim, Kürşat Ayan, and Abdal Kasule. 2021. “A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey”. Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Information Sciences 4 (2): 266-76. https://doi.org/10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902.

EndNote

Şeker S, Ayan K, Kasule A (August 1, 2021) A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey. Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Information Sciences 4 2 266–276.

IEEE

[1]S. Şeker, K. Ayan, and A. Kasule, “A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey”, SAUCIS, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 266–276, Aug. 2021, doi: 10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902.

ISNAD

Şeker, Selim - Ayan, Kürşat - Kasule, Abdal. “A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey”. Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Information Sciences 4/2 (August 1, 2021): 266-276. https://doi.org/10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902.

JAMA

1.Şeker S, Ayan K, Kasule A. A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey. SAUCIS. 2021;4:266–276.

MLA

Şeker, Selim, et al. “A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey”. Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Information Sciences, vol. 4, no. 2, Aug. 2021, pp. 266-7, doi:10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902.

Vancouver

1.Selim Şeker, Kürşat Ayan, Abdal Kasule. A Curve Fitting Modelling Approach to Forecast Long-Term Electrical Energy Consumption: Case Study of Turkey. SAUCIS. 2021 Aug. 1;4(2):266-7. doi:10.35377/saucis.04.02.953902